'True Detective' Might Not Be an Emmy Lock After All

Many viewers of HBO's True Detective, whether awards pundits or not, had plenty of reason to assume it would be a lock for the Emmy. This is because of the recent trend of anthology and limited run series submitting in the TV Movie/Miniseries category. This is how shows like Sherlock, Luther, and American Horror Story have been able to receive acclaim without being crowded out by the shows in the Drama Series categories. Given the relatively slim competition among the TV Movie/Miniseries categoriez, barring some kind of Behind the Candelabra-style sweep, True Detective seemed like a sure thing for the win.

But now? Not so much.

Credit: HBO

HBO is deciding to go for the big prize by submitting True Detective for the Drama categories. Essentially, this raises the show's level of competition, as the series will now be competing against the final season of Breaking Bad, a critically-acclaimed season of The Good Wife, the outstanding first season of Masters of Sex, and HBO's own Game of Thrones and Boardwalk Empire, to say nothing of past nominees such as Downton Abbey, Mad Men, Homeland and House of Cards. Meanwhile, former locks Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson will now face stiff competition from the likes of Bryan Cranston, Kevin Spacey, Damian Lewis, Steve Buscemi, and Michael Sheen, just to name a few.

Here's Deadline to explain:

The project, created by Nic Pizzolatto and starring Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson, was sold and done as an eight-episode limited series, which easily would’ve qualified it as a miniseries. FX’s anthology series American Horror Story, which airs 13-episode installments, started off in the drama series category at the 2012 Golden Globes before switching to longform for the 2012 Emmy Awards. It has competed as a miniseries ever since and has been dominant in Emmy nominations, landing 17 last year. The drama field is far more competitive and tough as PBS’ Downton Abbey found out after switching from miniseries to drama series after Season 1. Still, winning a drama series Emmy has a big cachet to it. Plus, True Detective does employ drama series storytelling techniques. But an entry as a miniseries would’ve pretty much guaranteed the moody Louisiana series a dominant performance and a slew of trophies.

So this move basically illustrates HBO's level of confidence in the series. Granted, they're not exactly wrong to be confident in it. And hey, the show might still sweep anyway. But the likelihood is much, much lower than it would have been had the series chosen a different route. HBO is putting all its eggs in one basket, passing up the "sure thing" in the hopes that the risk of doing the "hard thing" will be worth the reward, since a show's victory is only as good as its competition. Of course, will HBO be singing the same tune if the show goes home empty-handed?

What do you think? Does True Detective still have a shot as a Drama series? Or was it insane of HBO to take it out of the Miniseries category? Sound off in the comments!