Top 12 - Analysis

All of my favorites made it, except for Judd Harris (why is Judd not in this picture?!) They are Anthony Fedorov, Mario Vazquez, Mikalah Gordon and Carrie Underwood. I really like this year's Top 12 since a lot of the them have a legitimate chance of winning it all (unlike last year when Fantasia had no equal).

The weakest three are Scott Savol, Lindsey Cardinale and Vonzell Solomon, but after that, I think it will be painful to watch the elimination, since it would be hard to see someone very good go. It would be interesting to see how the "big four" (Anthony, Mario, Carrie and Constantine Maroulis) solidify their fanbases every week. And how Bo Bice will continue to surge and crank out a loyal fanbase of his own. Anwar Robinson and Nadia Turner are the outsiders who will deliver solid performances and who I think have fans, but are they fanatical enough to get them through? (Think the male and female Latoya Londons of this year). Jessica Sierra is also pretty solid, and has been getting a lot pimping from Simon lately, but can she really unseat Carrie in the female side or any of the guys for that matter? I think that if Lindsey can get her groove going, Jessica who has a similar husky sound, should get the boot early.

Admittedly, our girl Mikalah needs a lot of work. She has downplayed her real strength for two shows now, and though it was perfect the first time, her version of 'Somewhere' this week leaves much to be desired. She might be getting over-coached, as it is beginning to show that her "act"/image is not as polished as the mature singers. If I were advising her, I would just be perky and go with it. It is obvious in the performances that Mario, Nadia, Bo and Constantine have had many years of performing on stage, and Mikalah just can't compete if she tries to act "mature" like them. She should just go with her strengths which is being fearless, funny and shocking by showing underneath all that is a girl who can really sing. She has the advantage of being younger than everyone else and that can really work on American Idol (it's all about demographics, baby -- talent don't vote, people who watch the show do).

I'm pretty convinced at this point, since I am an all-knowing American Idol guru, that it will be an Anthony, Mario, Carrie and Bo Final Four. With perhaps "shocking" early exits from Constantine and Mikalah. Or Constantine (and Lindsey) singing horribly week after week and yet ending up high in the voting. When Anwar and Nadia get eliminated, people will be "shocked", but their fate is clearly written in the stars -- we still love them though, but half the audience will be voting for Anthony or Mario every week.