Rickey's Top 4 Mega Conspiracy Theory Analysis
So we are finally here: The Top 4 for American Idol Season 7, and potentially the most exciting week for this season. We have now reached Tier 1 Shock Elimination Territory. Two of the most shocking eliminations in American Idol history happened in the Top 4:
Tamyra Gray, Season 1. Everybody thought it would be Tamyra Gray vs. Kelly Clarkson in the finale -- the battle of the best singers in the competition. Instead we were treated with Tamyra's early exit before Nikki McKibbin and Justin Guarini, and established American Idol's signature trademark: the shock elimination. It also established another benchmark: That the eventual winner will have a straight path to winning in the finale (examples: Kelly, Taylor, Jordin).
Chris Daughtry, Season 5. Could they really do it? The established early front-runner by Fox publicity as the shock elimination? Surely Chris Daughtry would at least make it to the finale... but it was not the case. In an elimination order which went on predictably like clockwork during Season 5, Chris' exit took everyone by surprise. He however went on to be the best-selling act of Season 5, creating the "Daughtry-effect": you don't need to win American Idol in order to be a success.
We now have a couple of scenarios that could happen depending on how Nigel Lythgoe and TPTB want this all to play out:
Syesha Mercado leaves. To create an all-male Top 3 and a potential ratings disaster. Not going to happen.
Poor Syesha. I feel bad for her. Her name has been floating around since the Top 12, but it was Fox's own fault for having a token black diva in the competition. Syesha has no fans, but her presence on this show is crucial. She embodies so many archetypes she is literally indispensable (black diva, the "survivor", now the only female, the "underdog", cannon-fodder with no career in the future, etc.) They may even use her in the finale! Syesha Mercado is further evidence that this show is rigged. Syesha has been in the Bottom 2 or 3 a staggering 6 times out of the last 8 weeks. How America can do this with cut-throat precision for TWO MONTHS (putting her in the bottom, then saving her) specially when MILLIONS of votes are allegedly involved is amazing. And yet, these fans never bother to buy ANY of her recordings or form any fan clubs. So you either believe that a Syesha fan is poor and cannot afford a 99 cent song a week, no access to iTunes or simply doesn't care for any song she has sung on the show -- OR that she has no fans from the very beginning and is just a pawn on this rigged show. And since I believe the latter, logically there is no way that Syesha will leave next week -- just as I have been predicting for the past few weeks if anyone noticed.
Jason Castro leaves. The most likely outcome. Never has there been an all-male Top 3 and I believe this is not going to happen this year. If the show was so willing to let go of Michael Johns before the girls, then they will let go of Jason Castro (or at least a male) before Syesha Mercado. The fact that Jason was not in the Bottom 2 this week should tell him that he is on his last week no matter what happens... unless...
One of the shock elims happen:
David Cook leaves. David Cook has been compared with Chris Daughtry all season, and David Cook going at this spot where Daughtry left is certainly a possibility. Maybe he'll be eliminated just to stress the point. David Cook is now assured to be signed by 19 Entertainment to a record deal, and it really doesn't matter when he leaves. Shock elim? Rocker-redemption with a win? It's all for dramatic effect. It's very likely that David Cook will be the best-selling act for Season 7... just like Daughtry.
David Archuleta leaves. This will be the shock elimination to end all shock eliminations. And if this is going to happen, it's going to happen in the Top 4 for maximum effect having Syesha and Jason in the mix. If American Idol so decides that they want a shock elimination for the sake of having one, I think it will be Archuleta over Cook since David Archuleta was the early favorite which "understandably" faded by not appealing to anyone outside of his core fans. This will make headlines for a long time which a true shock elimination should.
And if either David leaves in the Top 4 or Top 3, the other David will win for sure -- and will place Syesha Mercado in the finale much to the shock of the Universe.
So will there be a shock elim? It depends on how the Top 4 show will pan out -- you know, the "script" -- Simon Cowell has yet to utter the words: "I think you can win American Idol" -- which is the guaranteed seal of approval. But I doubt that a shock elim will happen. A David vs. David finale is too good to pass up. It will have a Clay vs. Ruben feel to it, which was arguably the best finale match up ever on American Idol. Ryan Seacrest may even use the "it is the closest vote ever" line all over again. And in that scenario, David Archuleta will be the American Idol, just like Carrie Underwood vs. Bo Bice. It's actually a total win for Fox, since they will have a finale where the audience will be unsure of what happens, then a sentimental favorite as the winner, plus a second-place finisher who could actually sell more CDs. Also the sight of a defeated David Archuleta is just too cruel for the American Idol audience and "America" will not do that.
Make no mistake however: David Cook is the most popular contestant right now even if David Archuleta is "perceived" to have legions of fans in people's minds. So it will still be interesting how the show manages to justify the David Archuleta win in the finale -- just like Carrie Underwood with "Angels Brought Me Here". This is why a David Cook elimination is not out of the question. If indeed David Archuleta is the chosen one (my High School Musical market theory) and TPTB feel that little David will not be able to pull it off vs. big David in a head-to-head match up, then David Cook might go in Top 4 or 3. But I think American Idol will find a way to make a David vs. David finale work in little David's favor.
Also, there are 3 more weeks. David Archuleta can still pull off his "Summertime" moment if he still has it in him. He will also sing a pimped out "Imagine" as his coronation song in the finale and the title will be his. (We hope so!)
Next week is "Songs that Shaped/Inspired Rock n' Roll" week. Should be fun!
Ok that's it.