Rickey.org Official Emmy Predictions
Since I was about thirteen years old, I've been “The Oscar Predictions Guy” amongst friends and family, before my fevered delirium saw me upgraded to “Oscar Guy,” period. It takes a very special kind of crazy to keep up with awards shows from year-to-year, but there was always something about the Academy Awards that had me hooked from my first ceremony, gnashing my teeth as Titanic swept every award from under Good Will Hunting's nose (including Best Original Song from the late, unimpeachable Elliott Smith). The Oscars are still my prime entertainment obsession, and doubtless always will be.
So what does that have to do with anything?
Well, other than hopefully getting the chance to cover Oscar season this year, my previous experience with showbiz awards means I might be able to parlay that knowledge into a decent score of Emmy predictions. Theoretically, predicting the Emmy Awards should be like shooting fish in a barrel, given their inertia against ever changing their mind about anything. The Television Academy likes what it likes, and it requires a major upswing in the competition, or a major downswing in the incumbent, to change their minds. But here's the thing: from year-to-year, there are certain unknown variables that are unique to the television industry. Predicting the Oscars is easier because each year can be taken in isolation. Sure, we can glean facts about how the Academy might lean by looking at their past behavior. But it's a different animal with television, as we have to look at how each show has performed in the past, whether certain shows perform better than others in certain categories, and whether any of the new blood in the race has sufficient heat to knock off the old guard. It's partly why I've never bothered predicting the Emmys before. Well, that, and also because I've never had the chance to watch as much TV as I have before I joined this site. So this is a unique position for me, as I find myself having seen a sizable majority of the nominated shows, when that's absolutely never been the case before. How well I do on these predictions will determine whether I ever do this again (I suppose audience size and response will have something to do with that, too). That said, I sincerely hope anyone reading this takes the opportunity to leave their predictions in the comments. I really do read every comment on my articles and try to respond to each one that seeks my input, and even some that don't. So I hope you feel welcome to add your input, since I'd love to read it (and compare scores after Sunday's big show).
Note: I'm hitting only the major categories for brevity's sake, since I'm sure no one wants to read sixteen pages of speculation. Let's have at it!
BEST DRAMA SERIES
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
Mad Men
This is an amazing lineup of shows, and I can't think of another year where there were so many viable winners (really, the only two shows that don't have much of a chance are, sadly, Game of Thrones and, less sadly, Boardwalk Empire). Mad Men is undefeated in this category, winning four straight Best Drama Series awards, which leads me to believe that Breaking Bad is out of the race, since it likely would have beaten Mad Men by now if it was ever going to. Adding Game of Thrones and Boardwalk Empire to the list of “seriously unlikely” candidates for the win, that leaves us with the newcomers to the category in Downton Abbey and Homeland. Downton Abbey is the most nominated show this year, while Homeland is the most critically-lauded. Either show could end the Mad Men dynasty, and be a deserving winner. All year I've predicted that Homeland would be the show to end the streak...which is why it's so weird that I'm abandoning it at the eleventh hour. But I just can't see Mad Men losing.
Winner: Mad Men
BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damian Lewis, Homeland
This is more or less a two-horse race between Cranston and Lewis, and I think Cranston will just barely eek it out. Jon Hamm really should win at least once for playing Don Draper, but if he couldn't win in last year's Cranston-less category, he isn't going to pull it off this year, stellar though he was.
Winner: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad (tying the record for most wins in this category)
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Kathy Bates, Harry's Law
Glenn Close, Damages
Claire Danes, Homeland
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
A great lineup, but this is pretty much The Claire Danes Show, and I'll need to scoop my jaw off the floor if it's anything else.
Winner: Claire Danes, Homeland
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
Jared Harris, Mad Men
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
My straight-guy crush on Aaron Paul is the stuff of legend, but I can't see him winning here. Really, his placement here is category fraud of the first rank: he's almost as big a lead as Bryan Cranston himself. But that's not why I don't see him winning. You'd have to go back to 1996 to find an actor who repeated in this category. Essentially, no one has won twice since. So while it's not impossible that 2010 champ Paul could take this, or even last year's winner in Peter Dinklage, it just seems very unlikely. But in a perfect world, Paul would get it. That said, I don't think Carter or Coyle have meaty enough roles on Downton to really warrant a win here, leaving us with Harris and Esposito. Harris was a key figure in the final lap of Mad Men's fifth season, and did some of the best work of any actor on that show. But Mad Men has yet to win an acting Emmy, and I can't imagine Harris is the man to break that streak (though he'd certainly be a deserving winner if he did). Meanwhile, Esposito's role as Gus Fring in Breaking Bad's fourth season was, much like my aforementioned man-crush, the stuff of legend. Esposito is an actor's actor, and very ubiquitous within the industry, so I could easily imagine a lot of friends and colleagues happily writing his name down.
Winner: Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad (becoming the first African-American to win in this category, surprisingly enough)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
So, as I was saying about that Mad Men curse...if it is time for the show to finally get an acting Emmy, it's now. For Christina Hendricks. She was arguably the season's MVP, and a stealth MVP in previous seasons. This would be an easy win for her if not for the presence of Dame Maggie Smith, whose Dowager Countess is a weekly highlight on Downton Abbey. Smith won in this category last year for the same role, but that was in the Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie category, where the field was considerably weaker. That said, Downton Abbey is the most nominated series this year, so I feel the Academy is going to want to give it an acting award somewhere, and this is the only place it makes sense.
Winner: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
BEST COMEDY SERIES
The Big Bang Theory
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Girls
Modern Family
30 Rock
Veep
Modern Family has won the past two years, yet this past season was pretty weak for them. That leaves us with the zeitgeist option (Girls), the critical surprise (Veep), or the returning juggernaut (30 Rock). If any show is going to upset Modern Family, it'll probably be Girls. But I don't think anything will.
Winner: Modern Family
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Louis C.K., Louie
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
The Emmys tend to follow self-prescribed patterns, and Parsons is their man, which is why it would be such a surprise if Louis C.K. pulled off the win here. I feel like Parsons didn't have a buzzed-about season, at least not enough to secure him another win, even given the lackadaisical patterns of Emmy voters. I'm going with Louis C.K., for the upset.
Winner: Louis C.K., Louie
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Zooey Deschanel is TV's Pretty New Thing to reward, but if the Globes didn't go for her (an awards-giving body that is far more populist than the Emmys), then I doubt the Emmys will. Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Lena Dunham both gotten a lot of buzz for their roles in the past TV season, but they have the opportunity to award Dunham in other categories, so I'm going with Julia Louis-Dreyfus, who is well-liked in a role that has received tons of critical acclaim. It'd be great if Amy Poehler could pull it off though, but really, how many people even watch Parks & Rec?
Winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Max Greenfield, New Girl
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
It's Modern Family vs. the world, and it's almost unfair, in a way. That's because Emmy voters get a DVD with the episode the nominated actors submitted. In a case like this, where four Modern Family actors are nominated, the voters are seeing essentially four episodes of each Modern Family actor instead of just one, giving them a wider critical basis with which to make their decision than they should have. This is why I think a Modern Family actor is going to win this category, but I doubt it'll be either of the actors who've won already, so that leaves us with O'Neill and Ferguson. O'Neill just seems like a safer bet.
Winner: Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Miyam Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie
Kristin Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Bialik had a critically-lauded season while Julie Bowen is kind of a default choice, but Kathryn Joosten died this year and was largely loved by the Academy, both as a performer as a person. Even though it's rare for the Emmys to award posthumous acting awards, I'm expecting they'll change their tune here.
Winner: Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives
Okay, now onto the lightning round:
GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Dylan Baker, The Good Wife
Jeremy Davies, Justified
Ben Feldman, Mad Men
Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife
Mark Margolis, Breaking Bad
Jason Ritter, Parenthood
Winner: Mark Margolis, Breaking Bad
GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Joan Cusack, Shameless
Loretta Devine, Grey's Anatomy
Julia Ormond, Mad Men
Martha Plimpton, The Good Wife
Jean Smart, Harry's Law
Uma Thurman, Smash
Winner: Loretta Devine, Grey's Anatomy (though I'd laugh if Mad Men's first acting award came from a guest performance)
GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Will Arnett, 30 Rock
Bobby Cannavale, Nurse Jackie
Jimmy Fallon, Saturday Night Live
Michael J. Fox, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Jon Hamm, 30 Rock
Greg Kinnear, Modern Family
Winner: Michael J. Fox, Curb Your Enthusiasm
GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Elizabeth Banks, 30 Rock
Kathy Bates, Two And A Half Men
Margaret Cho, 30 Rock
Dot Marie Jones, Glee
Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live
Maya Rudolph, Saturday Night Live
Winner: Kathy Bates, Two And A Half Men
OUTSTANDING MINISERIES OR MADE-FOR-TV-MOVIE:
American Horror Story
Game Change
Hatfields & McCoys
Hemingway & Gellhorn
Luther
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia
Winner: Game Change
BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MADE-FOR-TV-MOVIE
Kevin Costner, Hatfields & McCoys
Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia
Idris Elba, Luther
Woody Harrelson, Game Change
Clive Owen, Hemingway & Gellhorn
Bill Paxton, Hatfields & McCoys
Winner: Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia
BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MADE-FOR-TV-MOVIE
Connie Britton, American Horror Story
Ashley Judd, Missing
Nicole Kidman, Hemingway & Gellhorn
Julianne Moore, Game Change
Emma Thompson, The Song of Lunch
Winner: Julianne Moore, Game Change
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MADE-FOR-TV-MOVIE
Tom Berenger, Hatfields & McCoys
Martin Freeman, Sherlock
Ed Harris, Game Change
Denis O'Hare, American Horror Story
David Strathairn, Hemingway & Gellhorn
Winner: Ed Harris, Game Change
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MADE-FOR-TV-MOVIE
Frances Conroy, American Horror Story
Judy Davis, Page Eight
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
Sarah Paulson, Game Change
Mare Winningham, Hatfields & McCoys
Winner: Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
OUTSTANDING REALITY-COMPETITION SERIES
The Amazing Race
Dancing With The Stars
Project Runway
So You Think You Can Dance
Top Chef
The Voice
Winner: The Amazing Race (because they're madly in love with it)
OUTSTANDING HOST OF A REALITY SERIES OR REALITY-COMPETITION SERIES
Tom Bergeron, Dancing With The Stars
Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance
Phil Keoghan, The Amazing Race
Ryan Seacrest, American Idol
Betty White, Betty White's Off Their Rockers
Winner: Betty White, Betty White's Off Their Rockers (because Betty White)
OUTSTANDING REALITY PROGRAM
Antiques Roadshow
Jamie Oliver's Food Revolution
MythBusters
Shark Tank
Undercover Boss
Who Do You Think You Are?
Winner: Shark Tank
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SERIES
The Colbert Report
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Late Night With Jimmy Fallon
Real Time With Bill Maher
Saturday Night Live
Winner: The Daily Show With Jon Stewart (they love it beyond reason, though I'd adore for Colbert to pull off the upset)
Thanks for reading (if you made it this far)! Make your own predictions in the comments and check back Sunday to see if you did better than I did (shouldn't be all that hard). See you Sunday.
Credit: ABC