Last-Minute Emmy Nomination Predictions 2014

Bright and early on Thursday morning, nominations for the Emmy Awards 2014 will be announced. This has been a landmark year for television, with the departure of Breaking Bad, the arrival of True Detective, and stellar seasons of longtime favorites like Game of Thrones, Scandal, and The Good Wife. In short, it's going to be an insanely crowded field, making this one of the hardest-to-predict years in recent Emmy history.

I'm hardly an expert in how the Television Academy thinks, but I'm going to try anyway. This is less about what I think should be nominated and more about what I think will be nominated. These are by no means my predictions for every category, simply the "main events": the categories focusing on Comedy and Drama Series. But you're welcome to add your predictions in the comments, and see if maybe we can form some kind of consensus! Check back tomorrow morning to see how you did, when Carson Daly announces the Emmy nominations at 8:40 AM ET.

So, without further adieu, here are my last-minute Emmy nomination predictions for 2014!

DRAMA SERIES

Credit: CBS

This is one of the toughest categories to predict since many of the incumbent nominees are less safe now than ever before. For example, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Mad Men will be completely ignored, or that Homeland might miss out on a nomination as well. Basically, all bets are off due to HBO's decision to submit True Detective as a Drama Series instead of submitting as in the Miniseries/Movie category, the way other anthology dramas have in the past (such as FX's American Horror Story).

So what will make the cut? Well, despite expectations of a shakeup, I think the Television Academy is going to play it safe and stick mostly with what they know. So while there's an outside shot that something like Hannibal or The Americans could sneak in, I think things will be relatively familiar.

Nick's Predix:

Breaking Bad
True Detective
House of Cards
The Good Wife
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones

COMEDY SERIES

Credit: ABC

In theory, this should be less complicated to predict, if only because the Television Academy is kind of set in its ways when it comes to comedy. Sure, they'll occasionally go for something anarchic like Louie or Parks and Rec, and yes, it's much more likely they'll do something outside-the-box in this category than in Drama Series, but there are regulars that the Academy tends to reward with a nomination here. With that said, this might actually be harder to predict than the Drama Series category because of all the potential new entrants, with Orange Is the New Black being campaigned as a comedy instead of a drama, and Golden Globe winner Brooklyn Nine-Nine entering the fray to possibly kick out an incumbent nominee. So this is a wild shot in the dark, but really, that's mostly what awards prognosticating entails, so...

Nick's Predix

Modern Family
The Big Bang Theory
Orange Is the New Black
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Louie
Veep

DRAMA ACTING CATEGORIES

Credit: HBO

The difficulty in predicting these categories comes from figuring out how newcomers like The Blacklist and True Detective will factor in. For example, will the Academy nominate both Woody Harrelson AND Matthew McConaughey? If so, which likely nominee will it knock out? Jon Hamm? Kevin Spacey? James Spader? Also, will Lizzy Caplan make the cut for Masters of Sex? Can Tatiana Maslany finally break through for Orphan Black?

The supporting categories are equally puzzling, given the strong field this year. Do both Aaron Paul AND Dean Norris make it in for the final season of Breaking Bad, or does some newcomer to the category pull off a shocker? Maybe Noah Emmerich for The Americans or Jon Voight for Ray Donovan? Honestly, Paul and Peter Dinklage are the only two sure things for the Supporting Actor category. And Supporting Actress is even less certain, given some of the more perplexing choices from last year (such as the decision to nominate, of all people in the ensemble, Emilia Clarke for Game of Thrones. She's a fine actress and plays her role well, but I just found it to be such a strange choice, given that other people in the cast had meatier roles). I guess we'll figure out tomorrow morning. Until then, here's what I think...

Nick's Predix for Drama Actor

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Matthew McConaughey, True Detective
Woody Harrelson, True Detective
Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
James Spader, The Blacklist

Nick's Predix for Drama Actress

Robin Wright, House of Cards
Claire Danes, Homeland
Lizzy Caplan, Masters of Sex
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Julianna, Margulies, The Good Wife
Kerry Washington, Scandal

(I feel weird leaving out Vera Farmiga for Bates Motel, but I just can't think who she'd knock out. Still, I might end up regretting some of these picks in the morning, like a 2am donut during Lent)

Nick's Predix for Supporting Actor in a Drama

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Dean Norris, Breaking Bad
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey

(I wish Sam Waterston could sneak in here for The Newsroom, but I think the Television Academy's infatuation with that show has more or less ended, in much the same way Boardwalk Empire struggles to get love for anyone not named Bobby Canavale)

Nick's Predix for Supporting Actress in a Drama

Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Michelle Monaghan, True Detective
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

(Although how great would it be if Phyllis Logan were to get in for Downton Abbey? I love Mrs. Hughes)

COMEDY ACTING CATEGORIES

Credit: FOX

Comedy acting is hard. This is what we're told, and given the amount of people on TV these days who can't do comedy all that well, I'd argue the adage about comedy being harder than drama is true. With that said, there's a lot of talent in the field this year, as this has been a pretty great season for comedy. So I'm peppering my picks with old favorites, likely newcomers, and a surprise here or there. For example, I think Andy Samberg is in for Brooklyn Nine-Nine, knocking out Jon Cryer for Two and a Half Men. I also think William H. Macy will make the cut for Shameless, even though this season was arguably more drama than comedy. Meanwhile, I think the Emmy love affair with Girls is mostly over, although it wouldn't surprise me to see Lena Dunham sneak in somewhere. It also wouldn't completely shock me to see some canceled series get recognized here, like The Crazy Ones, or a recently-departed series like How I Met Your Mother, or even a show on the decline like Glee or Two and a Half Men. But I don't think it's necessarily likely, given the depth of the field this year. Here are my picks...

Nick's Predix for Actor in a Comedy Series

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Louis C.K., Louie
Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
William H. Macy, Shameless
Don Cheadle, House of Lies

Nick's Predix for Actress in a Comedy Series

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Lena Dunham, Girls
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Taylor Schilling, Orange Is the New Black
Anna Faris, Mom

(I wanted to put Melissa McCarthy in there for Mike & Molly, but I just have a feeling about Faris, even though I don't particularly care for the show itself from the handful of episodes I've seen)

Nick's Predix for Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Tony Hale, Veep
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family

(I know, I know. The supporting categories are basically all Modern Family, all the time though. At least where nominations are concerned. And I don't expect this will be the year that changes)

Nick's Predix for Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Allison Janney, Mom
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Merritt Weaver, Nurse Jackie

REALITY COMPETITION SERIES

Credit: NBC

Okay, so I've decided to throw in this category for fun, even though it's outside my "Only Comedy and Drama Series, no Guest Actor categories, no Miniseries categories, and Tech/Craft Categories" rule. But only because I think this has the potential to be one of the more interesting categories in the lineup, since I'm fully expecting this to be a tight race, with expected favorites just barely missing out.

Nick's Predix for Reality Competition Series

The Voice
The Amazing Race
Top Chef
Dancing With the Stars
So You Think You Can Dance
Survivor

(In short, I'm expecting both MasterChef and Project Runway to be left out. The latter prediction is pure madness, but I just have a feeling. Maybe it's just my own confirmation bias, but Survivor had two great seasons worth recommending, which strengthens its case for a nomination, I think)

Nick's Predix for Reality Host

Tom Bergeron, Dancing With the Stars
Ryan Seacrest, American Idol
Betty White, Betty White's Off Their Rockers
Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance
Phil Koeghan, The Amazing Race
Heidi Klum/Tim Gunn, Project Runway

(As much as I adore Survivor, I think Jeff Probst is just barely going to miss out, as will one of my favorites in Hollywood Game Night's Jane Lynch. It'll be a shame, but I just don't see how the Academy passes up another opportunity to nominate Betty White. And say what you will about the decline of American Idol, but I still think Ryan Seacrest is the best there is in the game when it comes to reality singing competitions)

So what are your Emmy predictions? What SHOULD get nominated, and what WILL get nominated? And what are the longshots you really want to see? Sound off in the comments, and join us tomorrow morning when the Emmy nominations are announced!