American Idol Results Post Mortem
Well, it finally happened, the first shocker of the season! I'm stunned. They actually did it, good on you Nigel! I love it.
I was very emotional with my analysis because I had feared for Carly Smithson -- and it clouded my judgement so bad I couldn't sleep. If she had not botched up her song choice, I would have had an easier time, but I am very happy with the results since it proves a couple of things, and it will give us guidance for the next few weeks:
(Rickey wears his conspiracy theory hat)
I was already thinking of a Michael Johns elimination yesterday because he sang at #1, and the "natural order" is really for him to go at this stage of the competition. That's why I asked if the show was going to sacrifice him in favor of Carly Smithson. What stopped me obviously was Michael Johns' sales on iTunes indicating voting and fan strength (in the real world). Giving Idol the benefit of the doubt, and hoping that they are all about the money, they wouldn't drop him. But alas, just as I had suspected, this show is rigged. I can only say this now with more certainty because of my voodoo iTunes charts. Figures don't lie. Syesha Mercado has no fans and we all know it. The result tonight was impossible if this show was truly based on votes.
I'm not disappointed though, because it only helps my office pool decisions in the future. It's all about the office pool! Who cares if people think I'm a nut job -- we're still #3 out of 800 people darnit. There's a method to the madness! LOL
So much to my own surprise, my conspiracy theory held: Syesha Mercado is golden up to at least Top 6. She most likely won't even be in the Bottom 3 next week. She can sing anything in the Mariah songbook it won't matter.
We can now add a couple more theories into the pan, now that the Syesha-anomaly has proven to be true: Carly Smithson will sing at least up to Broadway week, and expect the rousing praise from Simon Cowell that she can win this thing soon. I am very excited for her. I think the board is now laid out for Carly to run the table and the judges will be behind her finally. The dark days are over people. Please get back to me when Simon starts praising Carly for her Mariah song, and then her amazing Andrew Lloyd Webber song. As god is my witness she's going to get the pimp spot finally on Broadway week. And at that point, the media will be convinced that she can win it all. Just don't take it too seriously Carly. The show is going to take care of you.
Kristy Lee Cook is in danger of finally getting the boot: it's inevitable now, her circle of protection is gone. If Kristy sings at #2 or #3 next week, it's a no-brainer. Besides, it's Mariah, Simon will crush Kristy like a fly. Her only hope is if she does something controversial like the McPhee-panty reveal, and in that case, Jason or Brooke's time on the show may be cut short. But that's unlikely. Switch your points from Syesha to Kristy because its finally coming.
I'm now thinking of some end-game scenarios with Jason Castro and Brooke White.
Brooke White has fallen off the radar lately, and I don't know if she can survive Syesha and Carly. I think that American Idol is going to make us choose between Kristy Lee Cook and Brooke White next week. The Kristy Lee Cook-anomaly however is not as strong as Syesha (and it's already run its course) so I think that between Brooke and Kristy, Kristy will go. Brooke White has been crying a lot lately so her entertainment value has gone up, but her musical value has gone down. She could do something during Broadway but she's clearly in danger next week, and she could be in the Bottom 3 from here on out.
Jason Castro meanwhile is safe for while, and I think his next hurdle will be in 2 weeks, in a battle with Syesha. For the love of god I will not allow Jason to be Syesha'd. Jason needs a strong song choice for Broadway or he might be in a bit of trouble. The next 2 weeks will already be a gift for Syesha so she can't take Jason with her. Nigel please.
For those who hate me, I really don't think David Archuleta will be the big shock in the Top 4 up. He's destined for the final whether you like it or not. Things are setting up for a potential David-David showdown or David-Carly.
Anyway, that's all I can see right now. This is probably what all of you are thinking. Or not.