American Idol 9 Top 12 Mega Analysis - Elimination Order Prediction
First of all, let's revisit my "fearless" American Idol Top 12 Prediction at the start of the Top 24 semi-finals. My scorecard is as follows: 3/6 for the girls and 5/6 for the guys. That's actually not bad!
For the girls I chose Katie Stevens, Didi Benami and Crystal Bowersox correctly.
It would have been blind faith to have chosen Paige Miles -- and even now people are questioning why she's in the Top 12. Lacey Brown still looks like cannon-fodder even in the Top 12. And Siobhan Magnus, I admit, I totally missed. And in fact, I now have her favored to take it all in the next few weeks.
For the guys I chose Andrew Garcia, Michael Lynche, Aaron Kelly, Casey James and Lee Dewyze correctly.
It would have been blind faith to have chosen Tim Urban -- and even now people are questioning why he's in the Top 12.
So what's my prediction for the Top 12 elimination order?
Well, it's kinda tough this season, but here's my best estimates. The numbers in parenthesis is the range I think each contestant could possibly end up in.
12. Andrew Garcia (6 to 12) - This really all depends on Tim Urban who has momentum going into the Top 12 tonight. Andrew still has a shot at making the tour, but if Tim delivers tonight and the judges continue to proclaim that Andrew has "peaked", I think we are in for another shocker. Andrew Garcia the front-runner after Hollywood Week is over. Best case scenario: Michael Johns-like Top 8 finish.
11. Lacey Brown (10 to 12) - I think the reason Lacey made it to the Top 12 is so she can be the Lindsey Cardinale and/or Melissa McGee of the season. Notice how she fits into that mold perfectly. If she should make it to the tour, America would have to reject the 2 teenagers (Aaron and Katie) and Tim and Andrew in some combination, and I don't think that's going to happen.
10. Tim Urban (6 to 12) - The next couple of weeks will be all about when Tim Urban will be voted off. I think that he is going to make a short run, then just barely make it to the tour.
9. Katie Stevens (6 to 10) - I still hope Katie makes it to the tour, but it's going to be really scary for the next couple of weeks. Lacey Brown being in the Top 12 helps Katie, but not much. I'm beginning to get Mikalah Gordon flashbacks right now.
8. Paige Miles (8 to 12) - The Black Diva Never Dies! I'm telling you, the fact that Paige made it to the Top 12 simply means that we will see a lot of her for a while. She's going to go on tour. However, she is destined to have the worst black diva finish in the history of the Top 12 which is currently held by Lil Rounds. Can Paige pull a Syesha Mercado? Maybe not.
7. Aaron Kelly (6 to 12) - Another cause of my misery is Aaron who is one of my favorites. He could miss the tour. Again, everything hinges on Tim Urban. If Tim and Andrew both sing well, Aaron could get a Chicken Little finish.
6. Casey James (2 to 6) - The first of our "sure to make the tour" contestants, Casey is one of the early fan favorites. I just see him cruising and not really making a serious run to the finish like David Cook though.
5. Michael Lynche (2 to 6) - I think his "This Woman's Work" performance secured a top half finish in the Top 12. America could fall in love with a velvet teddy bear again this year (except he's more massive).
4. Lee Dewyze (2 to 6) - My dark horse! I don't see him finishing less than 6th at this point. However, I've put him at the Daughtry elimination territory, because if this is the year of the girls, then that deserves nothing less than an all-girl Top 3:
3. Didi Benami (1 to 7) - (Notice how I handicap my favorites by a lot...) I must admit, Didi is quite popular here in the blog and on other Idol sites, so her chances of making it to the end are good. However, all the crying drama she has going on is the classic scenario that happens between top 3-6 on Idol.
2. Crystal Bowersox (1 to 5) - She could win. But I am hoping that she's the shock elimination late in the season. Nothing personal against Crystal. I just want a shocker.
1. Siobhan Magnus (1 to 3) - I think she will win. We'll find out tonight.