American Idol 8 - Top 13 Mega Analysis

Mega Analysis

Last night on Rickey TV, we had a 4-hour brainstorming session on how we thought the American Idol Top 13 would play out. I would like to thank Gabriel and the 30-plus guys in the chatroom (list at the end of this post), who helped me live out my American Idol Top 13 Fantasy Scenario. Hahaha. As I was telling the chat: "I already told you how American Idol 8 will play out, now we can move on to season 9!" Or at the very least, I've given them an entertaining version of AI8 drama in 4 hours.

Anyway, of course, this is all speculation, and I fear that if TPTB ever read this, they will ruin everything again for me in the Office Pool -- but let's just say that I am NEVER CORRECT and this is the most HIGHLY UNLIKELY SCENARIO to ever come out for Season 8. So just sit back and enjoy the fiction, because this is so NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

This of course is also done without hearing anyone sing, and we have made adjustments for someone actually breaking out of the typical casting and sing well. Also bear in mind that there is an "unknown twist" in the Top 13 this year -- which may just render all predictions futile.

Also some assumptions:

1. There is a "dark horse" this year -- so we are picking one without hearing anyone sing.
2. The Black Diva will live forever.
3. There is ALWAYS a shock elimination.

There are other conditions, but I think these are the most important.

Here we go:

Michael Sarver. Everyone is bearish on Michael's chances. No one thinks he will make it to the Top 10, and therefore the Tour. Right now I am assuming that only the Top 10 will make the Tour and basing my analysis on that. So if that is the cutoff, then Michael Sarver will be eliminated at 13, 12 or 11. True, he was voted by "fans" but that was already three weeks ago, and now he is against more talented people. I am however, giving Michael a slight chance of making it to the Top 10 if he sings well this Tuesday, similar to Chikezie last year, but that's very slight since I don't think he will sing well. Prediction: 13, 12, or 11

Kris Allen. I love Kris Allen! No wait, I am in love with Kris Allen. However, I am not too happy about his chances. I would love Kris to make it to the tour, but it looks like he is lower-tier cannon fodder and not a real player this year. In a way I am very excited because if there is anyone we are going to try to "save" for the next couple of weeks, it's going to be Kris. I give Kris slightly better odds than Michael only because I love him. Prediction: 13, 12, 11 or 10 (which would be a MIRACLE). (Kris Allen, please let me FAIL)

Alexis Grace. So torn with Alexis. Didn't they say she could be the dark horse? For this "fantasy scenario" we are choosing Allison Iraheta as the "dark horse" (which means she's going to run the table until the finale). Because we can't have 2 dark horses, I've chosen Alexis to possibly be the first female eliminated. Her chances are better than Kris Allen, since my Jasmine Murray conspiracy theory might not pan out (see below). Prediction: Between 12 to 8. (Note: In another "fantasy scenario" Alexis is the dark horse, so replace here with Allison Iraheta, Jasmine Murray or somebody you don't like to not make Top 10 if you like Alexis' chances).

Jasmine Murray. Ah yes. So much hate on Jasmine which to me only means one thing: she is so not going to get eliminated early -- and therefore I just threw Alexis and Kris Allen under the bus. With that I predict Jasmine to be the first "I can't believe she's still in there" contestant this year, and may even make it to the Top 10 to add to fan spite. A lot of fans think that Jasmine is going to be the first girl out, but I disagree. She is going to get more talented singers out first and the fans will be up in arms. Prediction: Between 12 to 8

Jorge Nunez. Everyone agreed that Jorge is going to make the tour. I also think that the judges will first praise the Spanish-accent, then use it as a liability to make way for his elimination. I also see him as a potential victim of Jasmine Murray -- or they will conspire together (or just Jorge individually) and be the early dramas of the season, beating out "better singers" like Matt Giraud and Alexis Grace. Prediction: Between 10 to 7

Matt Giraud. Again torn with Matt since I like him and a lot of fans on Rickey.org like him. However, his soul sound is too similar to Danny Gokey and only one will stand. I see Matt Giraud as a potential victim of Jasmine Murray, but I think Jasmine will get eliminated first. After Matt gets to showcase his piano talents early, I think it's sayonnara. Prediction: 9, 8 or 7 (Note: In another "fantasy scenario" Danny Gokey crashes and burns early, so Matt takes his place as the "soul guy" on the show and becomes the "dark horse" and wins!)

Megan Corkrey. Everyone agreed again that Megan looks like Top 10 material. There's also a very slight chance that Megan becomes the "dark horse" (and goes all the way to the finals). In this "fantasy scenario" however, we have chosen Megan to be the "pretty girl who gets far on her looks with borderline singing ability and the judges love her." After Jasmine Murray gets eliminated Megan Corkrey takes her place as the suspect finalist who always avoids elimination. Prediction: Between 8 to 5

Scott MacIntyre. By week 6, all the less popular singers would have been gone, and the blind-thing would have run its course. It will be painfully clear to everyone that Scott can't win, but he did his thing and will exit gracefully. Prediction: Between 7 to 5

Anoop Desai. This was very difficult, because clearly I have no idea what's going to happen. All I know is that the judges are using Anoop Desai for emotional manipulation, and it has already affected me. I can't think straight. I love Anoop! However, we have to look at the bigger picture. Anoop can either get eliminated early or be the foil in the Top 6 "shock elimination territory". In this "fantasy scenario" I am counting on Idol's tremendous investment on Anoop Desai's story that they will not dare get rid of him early. I am also hoping that Idol will take the bait and look forward to the Anoop Desai homecoming in Chapel Hill and bring him all the way to the Top 3. Prediction: Between 8 to 3

Lil Rounds. Ah yes! Lil Rounds is my girl this year! This is easy. At least Top 4, but since I am greedy why not increase Lil's odds to the finale? Prediction: 4, 3 or 2

Danny Gokey. There are 4 people that I might consider to be a shock elimination this year: Matt Giraud (early in the hands of Jasmine), Lil Rounds, Adam Lambert and Danny Gokey. Out of all of them, Danny Gokey will be the most shocking, so knowing Idol they might do that. In fact, an early elimination as low as Top 8 (elevating Matt Giraud) is still shocking so that might happen too. However, he is still a front-runner so he can still make the finals and go wire to wire like Carrie Underwood. Prediction: Between 6 to 1

Allison Iraheta. In this "fantasy scenario" we have chosen Allison as the "dark horse" which means she is automatically in the finale. Although all the potential "dark horses" have a chance (Matt, Alexis and Megan) -- I've chosen Allison because she has a big rocker voice and she is 16. Once Jasmine Murray is gone, Allison will be the only teenager left and could be a sentimental favorite. We could watch her "grow". I think that among all the "dark horse" scenarios, this is the most exciting on paper. Prediction: Finale (Note: In other "fantasy scenarios" Allison is not the "dark horse" -- so adjust her chances accordingly, I'm thinking between 8 to 4. Remember in a non-"dark horse" scenario, a Danny Gokey vs. Adam Lambert finale is likely, which will be boring so I hope it doesn't happen. Even worse, a Danny Gokey vs. Lil Rounds finale will make me want to slice.)

Adam Lambert. Everyone on Rickey.org is bullish on Adam's chances. We are not placing him any lower than Top 3. Adam could either be the graceful loser to whoever the real chosen one is (ie the "dark horse" or Danny Gokey), or he could just dominate and it's going to be a race to be #2. Prediction: 3, 2 or 1

Obviously, whatever happens this Tuesday will set everything in motion. There are just a few holes that need to be filled since the Top 36 did not give much to work with for some of the contestants.

If Allison Iraheta clearly does not become the "dark horse" for example, then we need to adjust to the ranges that I think she will fall into, etc.

Things to look out for this week:

The pimp spot may not be a good predictor this year for overall results, because Danny Gokey, Adam Lambert, Lil Rounds and even Anoop Desai already got pimp spots for the past 4 performance nights. So it is already established that they are the front-runners. However, still look for the pimp spot during the next 3 weeks for guidance. If Allison Iraheta or any of my "dark horse" picks end up here, I believe their chances of being the actual "dark horse" increase dramatically.

The Top 13 elimination danger zones are: Singer position #1 and between #5-#9. For fun, if this week is a double elimination, the bottom 3 will be singer #1, #5 and #9 with #5 and #9 getting the boot.

Look for red lights.

The "fantasy scenario" rankings:

Conditions: Allison Iraheta is the "dark horse". The Black Diva lives forever. There is ALWAYS a shock elimination.

13. Michael Sarver
12. Kris Allen
11. Alexis Grace
10. Jorge Nunez
9. Jasmine Murray
8. Matt Giraud
7. Scott MacIntyre
6. Megan Corkrey
5. Danny Gokey
4. Lil Rounds
3. Anoop Desai
2. Allison Iraheta
1. Adam Lambert

What have I been smoking? This whole thing does not make sense. LOL

Partial list of those who participated in the brainstorming (blame them, LMAO)

AdamFan
iluvearchie
spring33
SaucyAussieCookFan
cassmills69
rickeyfan1
MolaproAndrew
litigiousgrl
theamericanidol
worldofwalter
WhatAFeeelin
llamacook
litigiousgrl
mariadonna74
lotusfirst
Loonyluna
llamacook
DC_song
CalifDCfan
cassmills69