86th Academy Awards Predictions - Who Will Win Oscar Gold?
So which films will take home Oscar gold? I've been a dedicated Oscar-watcher for about fifteen years now, and even though the winners occasionally seem obvious, the only constant has been that nothing is ever set in stone. And so it is here: I might be overthinking a lot of these categories (and really, the prediction game favors those who don't overthink), but there are so many different factors to consider in each category. It's far more difficult than it probably should be, especially when you consider that the winners aren't really about politics most of the time. More often than not, it's just about what the voters liked the most. Seriously. It's not always much more complicated than that.
But I still feel like I have to at least pay lip service to the business of Oscar punditry. And so, let the analysis begin! If you want to follow along with your predictions by basing it off of the criteria of which films have won which prior awards over the course of the awards season, just click on this "Precursor Awards" tag. That'll give you a comprehensive list of posts with winners from each of the major precursor awards over this season. From this, you'll be able to pick out which films have been dominating the season, and which movies have been slowly building steam. We're looking to improve everyone's Oscar pool scores this year!
(And on that note, join our Official Rickey.org Oscar Pool! Compete against our writers and your fellow commenters!)
So let's get to the predictions for The 86th Academy Awards!
Credit: ABC/AMPAS
Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
The unprecedented tie at the Producers Guild between Gravity and 12 Years A Slave has thrown this race into complete disarray. Normally, the PGA is the best indicator of a film's shot with Oscar, since it's the only precursor award that follows the Academy's system of preferential balloting. Of course, the Academy has already promised that such a tie will be barred from happening, since the Academy's balloting system is far more rigorous and protracted. Each ballot is essentially weighted in such a way that a tie would be impossible, given that each voter must rank his or her top films in order. Were a tie to happen between two No. 1 vote-getters, the tie would be broken through No. 2 and No. 3 votes, and so on and so forth until we have a winner.
So what will the winner be? Do Gravity and 12 Years A Slave split votes, allowing American Hustle to pull off the upset? It's not beyond the real of possibility, since it's an actors' picture, and actors are the largest voting bloc in the Academy. But I'm not sure there's enough heat behind the film to carry it all the way. And while Gravity is the clear frontrunner right now, having taken both the PGA and the DGA for director Alfonso Cuarón, I just can't imagine it as a Best Picture winner. It's an amazing film, but it's just so far from what the Academy usually goes for. This isn't to say that the Academy hasn't broken from its own tastes before (The Hurt Locker!), but I just have a gut feeling that 12 Years A Slave is too important a film, from a social and historical perspective, for the Academy to pass up.
Nick's Pick: 12 Years A Slave
Best Director
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
While I'm back-and-forth by the hour about Best Picture, I have almost no doubts whatsoever that Alfonso Cuarón has Best Director locked down. As he should.
Nick's Pick: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Credit: Focus Features
Best Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
This is an absolutely stacked category, with potential for a win from Bruce Dern and even Chiwetel Ejiofor, two men who've somewhat fallen out of the race in recent weeks. But I get the feeling this is between Matthew McConaughey and Leonardo DiCaprio. Leo certainly has a shot at the upset, given his inherent likability, and his status as a nominee who's seriously overdue for a win. But beyond that, this also happens to be, quite possibly, his best performance ever. So even if he did pull out the win, he'd definitely be a deserving winner. The question is, however, if anyone can stop McConaughey, who's won practically everything in the precursor season. The only way he loses is if there's a sudden groundswell of support for Leo, or if people are exhausted with the McConaughey narrative and bored of the inevitability of his win. But that would kind of be a shame. I'm sticking to my guns on this one.
Nick's Pick: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Here's my dilemma. It's exceedingly rare for a film with nominations in all four acting categories to go home empty-handed, yet the only real shot the film has at winning acting honors is either here (if Amy Adams repeats her Golden Globe success) or in Supporting Actress. And as great as she often is, I just don't know if the Academy is going to give a second Oscar to Jennifer Lawrence this early. It was rare enough for them to give Best Actress to someone that young. Were she to win again, she'd be the youngest two-time winner in history, if memory serves. Granted, this isn't really a big reason to rule her out, since there's a first time for everything. But I just can't imagine Lawrence winning again. And so American Hustle's best chance is with Adams then.
And she does have a good chance at being a potential spoiler, given that Cate Blanchett is catching second-hand hell over Woody Allen's colossal Dylan Farrow scandal. It could be guilt by association, in that her refusal to publicly condemn Allen could prompt the Academy to distance itself from her. But she's won nearly every conceivable award an actor could win for a role up to this point, and I think her touching BAFTA speech will have calmed whatever ill-will might have arisen. And so I'm sticking with Blanchett, despite a great performance from the long overdue Adams, and an even better "one woman show" performance from Sandra Bullock.
Nick's Pick: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Credit: Focus Features
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Barkhad Abdi is a potential spoiler, since the Academy loves discovering an unknown actor and then anointing him (Dr. Haing S. Ngor, anyone?). But Abdi would be a huge upset, and upsets of that size only tend to happen in years where the race is a lot less locked up than this one. In short, I just don't see how Jared Leto doesn't take this.
Nick's Pick: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
As mentioned above, smart money says this is where American Hustle prevails, since it's an actor's picture, and actors make up the largest voting bloc in the Academy. And they clearly love Lawrence, who's the kind of star Hollywood gets to fawn over only once every couple generations. But I just feel like Lupita Nyong'o has this. She won the SAG, and while that alone isn't the strongest indicator of Oscar, she also has a host of other Critics awards to back it up. And Best Supporting Actress is the award where the Academy likes anointing a rising ingenue.
Nick's Pick: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
Credit: Columbia Pictures
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
I feel like this is a three-way race between American Hustle, Her, and Nebraska. I know most pundits are picking Spike Jonze for Her, but I don't feel as though the script is what makes that movie as special as it is, it's the design and performances around it. American Hustle is the same way. If this were a pure screenwriting award, I feel it would all come down to Nebraska and Dallas Buyers Club. (The only reason I'm ruling out Blue Jasmine is because Woody Allen just won two years ago for Midnight in Paris, and I don't think this is exactly a time in which he's held in particularly high esteem by the public) Yet it's about a lot more than just screenwriting. I feel American Hustle needs a big win somewhere, and this might as well be it, since the Academy has been looking for a reason to give David O. Russell an Oscar. So Hustle it is.
Nick's Pick: American Hustle
Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
A win for Philomena would make me so deliriously happy. But I just don't see how 12 Years A Slave loses here.
Nick's Pick: 12 Years A Slave
Credit: Walt Disney Pictures
Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
The Wind Rises has a serious shot, since it's Hayao Miyazaki's farewell film. But realistically, it's Frozen. A movie doesn't arrest the public consciousness the way Frozen has, and then fail to win Best Animated Feature.
Nick's Pick: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown
Omar
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Missing Picture
I feel like this is between The Broken Circle Breakdown and The Great Beauty, two films that have been at the forefront of critical and awards acclaim this season. While last-minute momentum is allowing The Broken Circle Breakdown to surge in the eyes of pundits, I'm going to stick with early frontrunner The Great Beauty. The spoiler here is The Hunt, which could take the win if the two frontrunners split votes, since the film is an absolutely devastating piece of filmmaking. But how often does the Academy feel compelled to reward a film about child molestation?
Nick's Pick: The Great Beauty
Best Cinematography
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
If it were up to me, it'd be a toss-up between Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, and Prisoners, each of which had stellar cinematography. But realistically, this is Gravity's award to lose.
Nick's Pick: Gravity
Best Film Editing
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
Smart money says Gravity takes this one, yet Gravity hasn't actually won very many editing awards over the course of the season. In fact, from a traditional editing perspective, it seems like the weakest of the nominees, owing to its effects-heavy nature. American Hustle seems like the likeliest alternative if the tide turns against Gravity, but I think this is the best category in which the Academy can honor the kinetic, pulse-pounding Captain Phillips.
Nick's Pick: Captain Phillips
Credit: Village Roadshow Pictures
Best Production Design
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave
I'd kind of love if Her won this, but this is pretty much Gatsby's to lose.
Nick's Pick: The Great Gatsby
Best Costume Design
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle had wonderfully nuanced costume design, yet this category also features the ostentatious designs of former winner Catherine Martin, who won for Moulin Rouge in 2001. She's nominated here again for The Great Gatsby, and it seems like a sure-thing. Even though American Hustle probably should win something else, given its 10 nominations, I think the gaudiest costumes will win out.
Nick's Pick: The Great Gatsby
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
Dallas Buyers Club should win, but the Academy doesn't always honor minimalist makeup and hairstyling. But this is a Best Picture nominee we're talking about here.
Nick's Pick: Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score
The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks
Again, I'd be thrilled if Philomena won, since it had one of the most gorgeous scores I heard this year. But the score for Gravity is practically a character itself. I don't think the Academy will pass up a score that vivid.
Nick's Pick: Gravity
Best Original Song
"Happy" from Despicable Me 2
"Let It Go" from Frozen
"The Moon Song" from Her
"Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
It seems almost unthinkable that "Let It Go" would lose. But then "Happy" became THE song of the moment on everyone's lips. Hell, it's #1 on the Hot 100 this week, which would make this the first winner that was No. 1 at the time of its victory. It'd be an immense achievement. This is essentially a battle between two pop culture phenomenons, and the question then is whether "Happy" peaked too late in the voting window, or if it's just popular enough to overcome the Frozen juggernaut. Basically, I really, really want "Happy" to win, but I don't think it will. Although if U2 wins, "deep message song" or not, I riot.
Nick's Pick: "Let It Go"
Credit: Warner Bros.
Best Sound Editing
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
The Academy loves epics (The Hobbit) and movies with water (Captain Phillips, All Is Lost), but I expect Gravity to be the tech category juggernaut.
Nick's Pick: Gravity
Best Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
See above.
Nick's Pick: Gravity
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
See above (again).
Nick's Pick: Gravity
Credit: Radius TWC
Best Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet From Stardom
The Square and The Act of Killing are the critical frontrunners, but 20 Feet From Stardom is the most popular of the nominees. So it's basically a choice between whether the Academy wants to award one of the more "deep"/"intellectual" choices, or if the Academy instead wants the zeitgeist choice. I'm guessing the Academy will want to go with the more feel-good movie.
Nick's Pick: 20 Feet From Stardom
Best Documentary Short
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Oscar rule: if the Holocaust is involved, more often than not, that's your winner. Doubly so if the subject, the world's oldest Holocaust survivor, just passed away while voting was still active.
Nick's Pick: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Best Animated Short
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom
Believe it or not, despite all his nominations in this category, an animated short starring Mickey Mouse has never actually won before. I guess there's a first for everything (hey, being paired with screenings of Frozen certainly helps visibility among voters).
Nick's Pick: Get a Horse!
Best Live-Action Short
That Wasn't Me
Just Before Losing Everything
Helium
Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?
The Voorman Problem
I have no expectations about what's going to win here, but if I had to guess, The Voorman Problem was a pretty high-profile work. And the Academy likes shorts they don't have to go too far out of their way to see.
Nick's Pick: The Voorman Problem
Credit: Fox Searchlight
So which films do you think will take top honors at the 86th Academy Awards! The winners for the Oscars 2014 are revealed on Sunday, so add your predictions in the comments, and don't forget to join our pool!
Best of luck!